You were only supposed to blow the bl*%dy doors off!
In David Cameron's attempt to keep his divided Conservative Party together and to cling on to power he ignored the advice of others and promised a referendum. In his arrogance, he assumed that people would think like him and those around them and simply vote to keep the status quo. Unfortunately, he realised too late that he was clueless and that he was about to lose possibly the most significant public vote in decades. It quickly became apparent that there was a large contingent of the public who simply did not see any benefits to the EU, from all political persuasions and nothing was going to convince them otherwise especially when the fiendishly clever 'Leave' campaign played on the fears of those who had been left behind in the economic race.
The lack of planning for a negative result and no clear idea of what it would mean to leave meant that when the narrow result was announced would mean that there was no clear mandate and no level of support. Different groups of leavers expected different things from the result. There were those who wanted to simply leave the institutions and remain in the single market, those who wanted to have some sort of customs union, and there were those who favoured a complete break regardless of the consequences. David Cameron promptly resigned and when Theresa May had the opportunity to steady the ship, she went along with the arch-Brexiteers and in her 'will of the people' rhetoric further widened the divisions between the different groups of people. The fact that the referendum has no minimum turnout threshold and no minimum vote or electorate threshold meant that any result could never command the overall support of the public unless the margin was huge. The simple fact is that there was only a 35% total electorate voted for Brexit but which form of Brexit was unclear. There was never going to be anyway on working out what the public wanted. The issue was also not helped by the fact that people do change their minds especially as 'new' facts come to light. The government is pleasing no one with their deal. Even those who voted for it, were openly saying that it was the best they could hope for. The fact that so many voted against it in the Commons simply demonstrates the seemingly intractable divisions
Meanwhile Labour under Jeremy Corbyn has spent two years sitting on the fence and keeping fairly quiet mainly because they themselves are divided. Jeremy's usp was always his authenticity and his refusal to compromise. This was great for those left wingers who now found themselves in a party who believed socialism but is not so great when many of those same idealistic left wingers are also pro-Europe. Saint Jeremy is now looking like the curmudgeonly old man that his right wing critics always accused him of. He is hamstrung by his need to keep the Labour 'leave' supporting voters in the North and West happy whilst keeping his southern liberal metropolitan remain voters and members on board. So much so that the gloss is fading. Many of the traditional leave voters will see him as a 'traitor' if he calls for a second referendum and will go to the Conservatives or join millions in not voting at all. Meanwhile, many of the young idealistic voters are looking towards the only unequivocal pro-European party - the Liberal Democrats - as a potential new home, should Corbyn hint that he is willing to go through with Brexit. In our binary electoral system, this is likely to mean a split vote for Labour with lost seats and victory for the Conservatives. The hope would be that many would simply hold their noses and vote Labour as the least worst option i.e. anyone is better than the Conservatives. However, many voters do not view Corbyn as Prime Minister material or are appalled by his past behaviour and therefore see the Conservatives under Theresa May as the least worse option especially when it comes to Brexit. Many are openly critical of Corbyn's refusal to state who's side he is on and can spot the fudge even as he denies it. Either way, the time is fast approaching when he will have get of the fence and make it clear what he wants.
The question however is: What happens next? It would appear that Brexit could lead to a recession, job losses, food shortages and potential civil unrest. The failure to go through with Brexit could lead to cries of betrayal and civil unrest. Either way, there is a serious likelihood or turmoil. The Liberal Democrats look seemingly to benefit if Corbyn decides to openly go with Brexit. Is this the return of the three party politics? Or will this be the beginning of the re-jigging of the constitution and voting system toward are more proportional and conciliatory system. Whether Brexit goes ahead or not, things can't stay as they are. The only questions are: What will change? How long will with the change take?
The lack of planning for a negative result and no clear idea of what it would mean to leave meant that when the narrow result was announced would mean that there was no clear mandate and no level of support. Different groups of leavers expected different things from the result. There were those who wanted to simply leave the institutions and remain in the single market, those who wanted to have some sort of customs union, and there were those who favoured a complete break regardless of the consequences. David Cameron promptly resigned and when Theresa May had the opportunity to steady the ship, she went along with the arch-Brexiteers and in her 'will of the people' rhetoric further widened the divisions between the different groups of people. The fact that the referendum has no minimum turnout threshold and no minimum vote or electorate threshold meant that any result could never command the overall support of the public unless the margin was huge. The simple fact is that there was only a 35% total electorate voted for Brexit but which form of Brexit was unclear. There was never going to be anyway on working out what the public wanted. The issue was also not helped by the fact that people do change their minds especially as 'new' facts come to light. The government is pleasing no one with their deal. Even those who voted for it, were openly saying that it was the best they could hope for. The fact that so many voted against it in the Commons simply demonstrates the seemingly intractable divisions
Meanwhile Labour under Jeremy Corbyn has spent two years sitting on the fence and keeping fairly quiet mainly because they themselves are divided. Jeremy's usp was always his authenticity and his refusal to compromise. This was great for those left wingers who now found themselves in a party who believed socialism but is not so great when many of those same idealistic left wingers are also pro-Europe. Saint Jeremy is now looking like the curmudgeonly old man that his right wing critics always accused him of. He is hamstrung by his need to keep the Labour 'leave' supporting voters in the North and West happy whilst keeping his southern liberal metropolitan remain voters and members on board. So much so that the gloss is fading. Many of the traditional leave voters will see him as a 'traitor' if he calls for a second referendum and will go to the Conservatives or join millions in not voting at all. Meanwhile, many of the young idealistic voters are looking towards the only unequivocal pro-European party - the Liberal Democrats - as a potential new home, should Corbyn hint that he is willing to go through with Brexit. In our binary electoral system, this is likely to mean a split vote for Labour with lost seats and victory for the Conservatives. The hope would be that many would simply hold their noses and vote Labour as the least worst option i.e. anyone is better than the Conservatives. However, many voters do not view Corbyn as Prime Minister material or are appalled by his past behaviour and therefore see the Conservatives under Theresa May as the least worse option especially when it comes to Brexit. Many are openly critical of Corbyn's refusal to state who's side he is on and can spot the fudge even as he denies it. Either way, the time is fast approaching when he will have get of the fence and make it clear what he wants.
The question however is: What happens next? It would appear that Brexit could lead to a recession, job losses, food shortages and potential civil unrest. The failure to go through with Brexit could lead to cries of betrayal and civil unrest. Either way, there is a serious likelihood or turmoil. The Liberal Democrats look seemingly to benefit if Corbyn decides to openly go with Brexit. Is this the return of the three party politics? Or will this be the beginning of the re-jigging of the constitution and voting system toward are more proportional and conciliatory system. Whether Brexit goes ahead or not, things can't stay as they are. The only questions are: What will change? How long will with the change take?
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